Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The Inter-Sudan War, Part 4

In Part 1, we considered the initial spark that ignited open hostilities between Sudan and South Sudan, recalling that:

International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has stated that Bashir invents conflict to create a better negotiating position, according to March, 2009 Wikileaked cable. Consequently, we could expect Bashir to generate some kind of crisis, through a false-flag operation if necessary; however, given the tensions, he really only needs to wait for an inevitable incident, then blow it out of proportion.


If the goal is not a thorough military defeat of the south, but rather a conflict to improve his negotiating position, and in particular a conflict under somewhat ambiguous circumstances so as to not galvanize any kind of international response, Bashir could pull this off quite easily. Such a scenario would be consistent with what we have seen in Sudan, it would be consistent with what we know of Bashir, and it would be consistent with Lt. Gen. Moi's observations. This might be leveraged by Bashir into more control over Sudan's oil exports which, coupled with a growing gold-mining industry in the north, would seem to secure Khartoum's position for the foreseeable future.

And, I think this is what is happening. As Governor Taban Deng said back in May, South Sudan is already at war.

In Part 2, we reviewed information from previous posts and various articles, coming to the conclusion that Sudan's President Bashir had been planning and preparing for contingencies to leverage incidents with South Sudan into more control of Sudanese oil (pumped in the South, but piped for export through the North), and into a more ethnically-cleansed Sudan. We also considered that such incidents could be fabricated, though this was not necessary, as, given the tension along the border with the south, a suitable incident would inevitably arise. We finished by asking some questions:

This is shaping up as a fight between 1) bad guys like Bashir and jihadists and 2) infidels and takfir like Gaddafi.

So, why is Obama supporting the rebels against Gaddafi who, by extension, may very well find themselves allied to Bashir?

And, why is Obama doing essentially nothing about Bashir's ethnic cleansing in Abyei and Southern Kordofan?

Of course, Gaddafi is dead and jihadist power in Libya (and Egypt) grows daily - and Syria is in turmoil... the jihadists are winning.

Sudan's President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir

In Part 3 we reviewed what is going in Kordofan, and saw how it is clearly an effort to eliminate a main opposition group from Sudan. One source cited took pains to claim this was not a Muslim/infidel sort of thing, but of course, I disagree: Bashir is very much into Islamic imperialism which, typical of such imperialistic ideologies, will be a springboard for Bashir himself to consolidate his own power. Bashir's jihad is being conducted via his tested formula of aerial attacks on civilians, followed by brutal assaults by jihadists on the ground. The aerial attacks are so bad, there is a website devoted to documenting them: Sudan Bombing. That some of the victims are Muslims is irrelevant; they can conveniently be labeled as takfir.

The current situation is summarized in CSIS's The Two Sudans on the Brink, from April 19, by Richard Downie:

There are fears that Sudan and South Sudan are edging closer to all-out war. The latest crisis has been precipitated by a dispute over oil, which propels the economies of both countries. South Sudan broke away from Sudan to become an independent nation in July 2011 but has been unable to agree on terms for using the North's oil pipeline, its only route to selling its oil. The dispute escalated in January, when South Sudan shut off production entirely rather than pay what it said were exorbitant fees to transport its oil through Sudan. A military confrontation quickly ensued, which culminated in the seizure by South Sudan's army of the main oil field controlled by the North, Heglig, on April 10. In a speech to party supporters, President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan said that efforts to retake Heglig would "not be the end, but the beginning." He pledged to "liberate" South Sudan from its government.

We can listen to the situation explained by South Sudan's Minister of Information Dr. Marial Benjamin in a nearly hour-long interview on Sudanese talk radio. From South Sudan condemns 'wanton' attacks on its territory, March 29, 2012:

At the Sahel Blog, Alex Thurston, a blogger whose commentary is often featured in the Christian Science Monitor, gives some background to the politics in the north in a post entitled Glimpses of (North) Sudanese Politics in a Time of Conflict from April 23. Three days before, he wrote a post entitled Sudan and South Sudan Flirting with Full-Blown War. Thurston consistently points to factors that may result in de-escalation and an avoidance of all-out-war. However, even if war between the two Sudans is technically avoided, do we not still have an ongoing war among Sudanese, considering Bashir's activities within the Republic of Sudan (the north)?

Some de-escalation between North and South has indeed occurred. From Governor Bakasoro 'unhappy' with South Sudan pullout from Panthou, hits out at 'biased' International Community, April 23, we have another audio clip:

For now, the African Union is reaffirming that border disputes should not be settled by force (see AU pushing roadmap for resolution of conflict between Khartoum and Juba), even as President Kiir faces domestic pressure in South Sudan for withdrawing troops from Heglig (known as Panthou in the South - see Governor Bakasoro 'unhappy' with South Sudan pullout from Panthou, hits out at 'biased' International Community).

Meanwhile, what has been happening in South Kordofan (see Peter Moszynski on the Nuba Mountains and South Sudan, April 6) will likely continue to happen, since the international community seems determined to let Sudan's indicted war criminals be war criminals.

How is this not already a war?

And, as I pointed out in a previos post, American media is letting this happen on Obama's watch, without so much as a whimper to call attention to it.

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